Mexico City, Dec 10 (EFE).- Meat prices are expected to face pressure through 2026 due to an outbreak of cattle grub (GBG), U.S. tariffs, and the Mexican government's exclusion of protein from its next year's anti-inflation package, warned the Mexican Meat Council (Comecarne) on Tuesday.
During the presentation of the 'Meat Sector Outlook 2025,' the organization's general director, Macarena Hernández, pointed out that the ban on live cattle exports, in effect since November 2024, has caused market distortions.
According to Comecarne data, Mexico has ceased to export 1.19 million animals, with an estimated impact of $1.552 billion.
In parallel, cattle prices for meat recorded a maximum annual increase of 15.4% in October.
'This is a factor that explains why consumer prices for beef have seen a significant increase (...) This disease, while it does affect primary production, also impacts the live cattle export sector,' explained Comecarne's Economic Studies Manager, Ernesto Salazar.
He also noted that while the disease has not reduced national production, it has increased operational costs in feedlots and restricted movement to slaughterhouses.
He added that the resumption of exports could take a long time, as eradicating the cattle grub in previous outbreaks took up to two decades.
He also pointed to impacts from the new tariff package imposed by the U.S. government, as while meat maintains preferential treatment under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), Comecarne reported that additional inspections and border delays have hindered the transit of refrigerated goods, affecting the continuity of industrial processes.
Additionally, Hernández announced that in 2026, the zero-tariff scheme for beef and pork within the inflation and scarcity package (Pacic) will cease to operate and will be replaced by an import quota system.
According to the executive, this measure could limit the availability of imported protein in a context of high demand.
National consumption of meat cuts increased by 4.2% this year, reaching 11.2 million tons.
Based on the data presented, Comecarne reported that meat inflation averages 15.1% annually, following two years of decreases linked to Pacic.
Salazar affirmed that the anti-inflationary agreement had positive effects and considered that strengthening it would be relevant in the face of renewed market pressures.
The sector also anticipates risks derived from the 2026 review of the USMCA, especially regarding sanitary rules and the continuity of free trade in meat products.
Photo EFE
